Ambrey Analytics assesses that Haitian gangs hold the advantage in the deteriorating security situation of the country. Past data suggest gang recruitment increases during periods of unrest, displacement, and hunger. Due to the uncertain timeline of force deployment as well as the strategic issues with urban warfare against plain clothes ‘soldiers’, gang control over key areas such as Port-Au-Prince is unlikely to be addressed in the short to medium term. Following PM Henry’s resignation, the process of appointing an interim prime minister may be fraught with further gang-led violence.

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