Ever wondered what the market efficiency is for the NFL draft? That is...how billion dollar organizations choose and trade their players, and whether or not it lines up with what the data/math says they should do?

The NFL Draft is a worldwide spectacle held once per year. A day where the success of a team hangs in the balance. One wrong move and you could be set back years behind the field, one great move and you could ensure success for many seasons to come.

With all this pressure on the draft and the success of a franchise in the balance, how do teams determine the value of these picks? How do they determine what is the best return for trades on current and future assets as well as active players?

Most importantly why do teams keep on making bad picks? The teams are billion-dollar organizations run and staffed by some of the brightest minds alive. Yet year after year teams make terrible franchise-altering choices around the draft. What causes teams to do this, and what could they be doing differently?


:00 The NFL Draft
2:28 Disruptive Draft Data
3:30 The Chart
4:45 Compensation & Performance Analysis
5:40 Draft “Skills”?
6:52 “Go Get Ur Guy”
9:54 Surprising Surplus Value
11:07 Causation Theories
14:49 Other Sports
15:20 Time

Citations

National Football League
Richard Thaler and Cade Massey Research Paper
https://www.nber.org/system/files/wor...
"Misbehaving" (book) by Richard Thaler
Pro Football Talk




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